Watch constraints, not valuations

Valuations are usually lagging indicators. More useful measures to track are unit inference cost, model-usage patterns, enterprise deployment cycles, developer-tool migration, and control of distribution channels.

Four kinds of signals

Inference economics

At a comparable quality level, is the cost per million tokens continuing to fall? Are caching, batching, and quantization changing the gross-margin structure?

Developer migration

Do new SDKs, protocols, or models cause developers to leave existing platforms rather than merely sign up for a trial?

Enterprise adoption

Is the journey from proof of concept to production getting shorter, and are security and compliance becoming a standardized procurement path?

Distribution power

Companies that control entry points in operating systems, browsers, office suites, or developer tools usually have lower customer-acquisition costs.